Canada: Outlook For Principal Field Crops 

For 2025-26, the outlook reflects Statistics Canada’s March 31, 2026 stocks data , showing total stocks of principal field crops up 15.4% year-over-year and 19.3% above the 2021-25 average. This increase is largely due to the record 2025 harvest. End-of-March stocks rose y/y for most crops, particularly durum and wheat (ex-durum), canola, flaxseed, lentils, dry peas, oats, and rye. Consequently, carry-out stocks (endingyear inventories) for all major field crops are forecast to increase sharply, reflecting strong production and slightly lower exports. Prices are expected to weaken y/y for most crops, though modest gains are forecast for corn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed.

For 2026-27, the outlook incorporates Statistics Canada's March 5, 2026 crop area estimates, which were completed before key developments, including the Canada–China tariff agreement on canola, canola meal and peas, and the conflict in Iran, making their impact on planting decisions uncertain. Seeding has begun in Western Canada but progress remains below average with cold, wet spring conditions slowing field activity in Saskatchewan and Manitoba , while Alberta is slightly ahead of average. In Ontario and Québec, planting is underway but remains limited by wet soils and variable weather. Assuming average growing conditions and trend yields, total principal field crop production is projected to decline from last year’s highs to more typical levels. Exports are expected to ease slightly, carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops to fall sharply, and prices to be more supportive overall, with most holding steady or strengthening; declines are anticipated for flaxseed, soybeans, chickpeas, mustard seed, canary seed, and sunflower seed.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on June 19, 2026.

Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)

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