For 2024-25, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) Stocks Report as of December 31, 2024 which was released on February 7, 2025. Stocks of all principal field crops are estimated to have decreased 2.4% year-over-year (y/y) and are 0.4 % below the previous five-year average. Exports of all principal field crops are expected to rise 6% from last year, while carryout stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to decline by 13% as lower carry-out stocks for grains and oilseeds more than offset a rise in pulse and special crops carry-out.
For 2025-2026, based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seed ed to field crops in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally in 2025-26. The area seeded to wheat, including durum, is expected to increase by 2%. Coarse grains area is forecast to rise by 6%, due to an increase in areas seeded to barley, corn, oats, and rye. The area seeded to oilseeds is projected to decrease by 5% on lower areas for canola and soybeans. Pulse and special crops area is expected to decrease by 2% as lower areas for chickpeas, dry beans, mustard, and canary seeds are partly offset by expectations for an increase in areas for dry peas, lentils, and sunflower seed. Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, the production of all principal field crops is projected to decrease marginally year-over-year. Exports are projected to decrease marginally, while carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly.
The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on March 20, 2025.
Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)
|
2025-2026f |
Production |
Exports |
|
Durum |
5,322 |
4,550 |
|
Wheat |
29,873 |
21,500 |
|
All Wheat |
35,195 |
26,050 |
|
Barley |
8,600 |
2,900 |
|
Corn |
15,100 |
2,100 |
|
Oats |
3,510 |
2,320 |
|
Rye |
620 |
185 |
|
Mixed Grains |
165 |
0 |
|
Total Coarse Grains |
27,995 |
7,505 |
|
Canola |
17,500 |
5,500 |
|
Flaxseed |
260 |
200 |
|
Soyabeans |
6,900 |
4,950 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
24,660 |
10,650 |
|
Total Grains & Oilseeds |
87,850 |
44,205 |
|
Dry Peas |
3,050 |
2,400 |
|
Lentils |
2,385 |
2,200 |
|
Dry Beans |
385 |
390 |
|
Chickpeas |
245 |
175 |
|
Mustard Seed |
130 |
100 |
|
Canary Seed |
140 |
125 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
75 |
35 |
|
Total Pulses & Spec. Crops |
6,410 |
5,425 |
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)
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