For the 2024-2025 crop year, exports of all principal field crops are expected to grow significantly due to strong global demand, with total exports expected to rise by 5% compared to the previous year. Carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to fall by 10% year-over-year, driven primarily by the increase in exports, with a secondary contribution from a reduction in imports.

For 2025-2026, the outlook incorporates Statistics Canada’s (STC) Estimate of Principal Field Area for 2025 released on March 12, 2025, which was based on a survey of 8,200 Canadian farmers conducted between December 17, 2024 and January 17, 2025. It’s important to note that the STC seeding intentions survey was completed prior to the uncertainties related to U.S. tariff actions and the announcement on March 8 by China of 100% tariffs on canola oil, rapeseed (canola) meal, and peas which becomes effective March 20, 2025. The full impact of these developments on farmers' planting intentions is not yet known. STC will release the Estimate of Principal Field Crop Area estimates on June 27, 2025, based on data collected in late May and early June. The area seeded to field crops in Canada is expected to increase slightly, up by 0.3% year-over-year. The area seeded to wheat, including durum, is expected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, mainly due to increases in spring wheat and winter wheat, while durum area remains nearly unchanged. Coarse grains area is forecast to grow by 1.4% year-over-year, due to increases in area seeded to corn, oats, and rye, offsetting a small decline in barley area. The area seeded to oilseeds is expected to decrease by 1.9% year-over-year, reflecting lower seeding intentions for canola and soybeans. Pulse and special crops area is expected to decrease by 2% year-over-year as lower areas for lentils, chickpeas, dry beans, mustard, sunflower seed and canary seed, offset an increase in area for dry pea area. Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production is expected to decrease slightly year-over year.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on April 17, 2025.

Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)

Disclaimer
All Gafta Circulars and Notices are provided to Members purely for the purposes of information. We have not taken any steps to verify the accuracy of the information provided and, accordingly, Members must obtain their own independent professional advice as to its content and effect. We cannot accept any liability, howsoever arising, for any loss or damage which may be caused by any reliance on any information contained in a Gafta Circular or Notice.