For the 2024-2025 crop year, carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) of all principal field crops are expected to decrease year-over-year. This decline is primarily due to lower carry-out for grains and oilseeds, driven by increased exports and to a lesser extent reduced imports, which offset the rise in carry-out for pulse and special crops.
For 2025-2026, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is projected to increase marginally year-over-year. With spring emerging across the country, farmers are beginning their preparations for seeding. Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production is anticipated to decrease slightly. Currently, the most significant climate-related risk to realizing trend yields is dry conditions remaining across parts of Western Canada. According to the latest Canadian Drought Monitor Update as of March 31, 32% of Prairie agricultural lands were experiencing abnormal dryness or drought conditions as of the end of March 2025, up from 23% in February and 26% in January. Additionally, the March update reported that 34% of agricultural lands in the central region (Ontario and Quebec) were experiencing abnormal dryness or drought conditions. Carry-out stocks for all principal field crops are projected to rise year-over-year, as carry-out for total grains and oilseeds and pulse and special crops increase, largely due to a decline in exports for both categories.
The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on May 21, 2025.
Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)
|
2025-2026f |
Production |
Exports |
|
Durum |
5,431 |
4,600 |
|
Wheat |
29,058 |
20,900 |
|
All Wheat |
34,489 |
25,500 |
|
Barley |
8,080 |
2,800 |
|
Corn |
15,107 |
2,100 |
|
Oats |
3,380 |
2,320 |
|
Rye |
620 |
185 |
|
Mixed Grains |
117 |
0 |
|
Total Coarse Grains |
27,304 |
7,405 |
|
Canola |
18,000 |
6,000 |
|
Flaxseed |
230 |
200 |
|
Soyabeans |
7,250 |
5,450 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
25,480 |
11,650 |
|
Total Grains & Oilseeds |
87,273 |
44,555 |
|
Dry Peas |
3,125 |
1,300 |
|
Lentils |
2,325 |
2,100 |
|
Dry Beans |
370 |
380 |
|
Chickpeas |
265 |
175 |
|
Mustard Seed |
85 |
95 |
|
Canary Seed |
125 |
120 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
51 |
30 |
|
Total Pulses & Spec. Crops |
6,346 |
4,200 |
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)
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