For the 2024-2025 crop year, the outlook incorporates Statistics Canada’s release of data on stocks of principal field crops as of March 31, 2025. Total stocks were 9.5% lower than the same period in 2024 and 9.9% below the 2020–2024 average. The decline was primarily driven by significant year-over-year reductions in canola and corn inventories, with smaller decreases in wheat (excluding durum), oats, flaxseed, and sunflower seed also contributing. Conversely, stocks of most pulse and special crops increased, along with durum, soybeans, and rye. Carry-out stocks (ending year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to decline year-over-year.

For 2025-2026, assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production is expected to decline slightly from last year. Drought conditions have generally improved since last fall, although abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions continues to impact agricultural regions in the Peace River regions of British Columbia and Alberta, northern Saskatchewan, and much of Manitoba as per the latest National Agroclimate Risk Report. Planting across the Canadian Prairies is well underway and generally ahead of the seasonal average. Year-over-year, carry-out stocks for all principal field crops are forecasted to increase, driven primarily by higher ending stocks in both grains and oilseeds as well as pulse and special crops. This growth is largely attributed to a decline in export volumes across both segments.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on June 20, 2025.

Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)