For the 2024-2025 crop year, the outlook incorporates Statistics Canada’s release of data on stocks of principal field crops as of March 31, 2025. Total stocks were 9.5% lower than the same period in 2024 and 9.9% below the 2020–2024 average. Movement of crops has been brisk through the third and fourth quarters of the crop year with Canadian Grain Commission farmer deliveries to-date running 12% ahead of same date last year. Exports through licensed facilities are running 20% ahead of last year’s pace, while domestic disappearance is up 3% from the same date in 2023-24. Carry-out stocks (ending year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to decline year-over-year.

For 2025-2026, assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production is expected to decline slightly from last year. Drought conditions expanded significantly throughout many regions of the country in May due to below to well below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures with 53% of the agricultural regions classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to extreme drought. By contrast, coastal regions of British Columbia, southern portions of Saskatchewan and Eastern Canada received well above normal precipitation as per the latest National Agroclimate Risk Report. Planting across the Canadian Prairies was ahead of the seasonal average and is generally complete. Year-over-year, carry-out stocks for all principal field crops are forecast to increase, driven primarily by higher ending stocks in grains, oilseeds, and pulse and special crops. This growth is largely attributed to a decline in export volumes across both segments. 

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on July 21, 2025.

Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)