For 2025-26, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production, which was released on December 4, 2025. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 10% year-over-year (y/y), 16% above the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to increase significantly by 67%, due largely to the increase in production and a projected 3% decline in exports.
For 2026-2027, rotation considerations, moisture conditions, expected prices, and input costs/availability are the main factors determining farmers’ seeding decisions in the spring. Additionally, heightened uncertainty surrounding international trade is expected to play a role in shaping planting strategies this year. Based on current market conditions and historical trends, total seeded area for field crops in Canada is expected to remain largely stable year-over-year. Wheat area is projected to decrease slightly by 0.3%. Coarse grains are forecast to increase by 2%, primarily due to higher barley acreage, while corn and oats remain steady and rye declines sharply. Oilseed area is anticipated to grow by 2%, supported by increases in canola, soybeans, and flax. Conversely, pulses and special crops are expected to fall significantly by 12%, with notable reductions in dry peas, lentils, chickpeas, dry beans, and canary seed. Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production of principal field crops is projected to decline year-over-year, while exports are expected to decline slightly and carry-out stocks to fall sharply.
The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on February 18, 2026.
Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)
|
2025-2026f |
Production |
Exports |
|
|
||
|
Durum |
5,668 |
5,300 |
|
Wheat |
29,310 |
23,200 |
|
All Wheat |
34,979 | 28,500 |
|
Barley |
8,450 |
3,040 |
|
Corn |
15,200 |
2,000 |
|
Oats |
3,550 |
2,570 |
|
Rye |
480 |
182 |
|
Mixed Grains |
165 |
0 |
|
Total Coarse Grains |
27,845 | 7,792 |
|
Canola |
19,200 |
7,500 |
|
Flaxseed |
340 |
240 |
|
Soyabeans |
7,600 |
5,500 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
27,140 | 13,240 |
|
Total Grains & Oilseeds |
89,964 |
49,532 |
|
Dry Peas |
2,850 |
2,700 |
|
Lentils |
2,250 |
2,200 |
|
Dry Beans |
375 |
385 |
|
Chickpeas |
260 |
200 |
|
Mustard Seed |
135 |
95 |
|
Canary Seed |
135 |
135 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
65 |
35 |
|
Total Pulses & Spec. Crops |
6,070 |
5,750 |
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)
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