Canada: Outlook For Principal Field Crops - February 24, 2026
For 2025-26, the outlook incorporates Statistics Canada’s (STC) December 31, 2025, Stocks Report, released on February 6, 2026. Total stocks of all principal field crops are estimated to be 10.2% higher than in 2024 and 15.8% above the previous five-year average. This build-up in stocks reflects record production in 2025, which is estimated by STC to have risen 10% year-over-year and to sit 16% above the five-year average. As a result, carry-out stocks (ending year inventories) for all major field crops are projected to rise substantially by 65%, supported by record supplies and a 2% decline in export volumes.
For 2026-27, seeding decisions are expected to be shaped by crop rotation needs, prevailing moisture conditions, anticipated price levels, and input costs and availability. Under current market conditions and based on historical patterns, total seeded area for Canadian field crops is projected to remain broadly stable year-over-year. Wheat area is forecast to edge down by 0.03%, coarse grains are expected to rise by 2%, oilseed area is forecast to grow by 2%, while seeded area for pulses and special crops is anticipated to contract by 12%. Assuming normal growing conditions and a return to trend yields, total production of principal field crops is projected to decrease year-over-year. Exports are expected to ease slightly, while carry-out stocks are projected to fall significantly.
The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on March 18, 2026.
Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)
|
2026-2027f |
Production |
Exports |
|
|
||
|
Durum |
5,668 |
5,300 |
|
Wheat |
29,310 |
23,200 |
|
All Wheat |
34,979 | 28,500 |
|
Barley |
8,450 |
3,040 |
|
Corn |
15,200 |
2,000 |
|
Oats |
3,550 |
2,570 |
|
Rye |
480 |
192 |
|
Mixed Grains |
165 |
0 |
|
Total Coarse Grains |
27,845 | 7,802 |
|
Canola |
19,200 |
7,500 |
|
Flaxseed |
340 |
240 |
|
Soyabeans |
7,600 |
5,500 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
27,140 | 13,240 |
|
Total Grains & Oilseeds |
89,964 |
49,542 |
|
Dry Peas |
2,850 |
4,180 |
|
Lentils |
2,250 |
4,020 |
|
Dry Beans |
375 |
510 |
|
Chickpeas |
260 |
575 |
|
Mustard Seed |
135 |
289 |
|
Canary Seed |
135 |
305 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
65 |
240 |
|
Total Pulses & Spec. Crops |
6,070 |
10.119 |
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)
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