Canada: Outlook For Principal Field Crops - November 04, 2026

For the 2025-26 crop year, the report provides the final estimates for all crops, incorporating information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) October 9, 2026, release of the supply and disposition for soybeans and corn in Canada. Production of all principal field crops achieved a record, up 11% year-on-year (y/y) and 17% above the five-year average. The primary driver of the higher production was improved yields, as the total
harvested area remained virtually unchanged. Ample supplies and robust international demand supported strong exports, with total exports of principal field crops rising 1% y/y and rising 14% above the five-year average. Total domestic use increased by 10% y/y and was 7% above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) increased by 36% y/y and were 28% above the five-year average, as record production
more than offset gains in exports and domestic use. Average prices for most field crops were lower y/y, except for corn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed.

For the 2026-27 crop year, the outlook continues to rely on preliminary crop production estimates from STC’s Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates release, based on information available as of August 31, 2026. The next update to production figures will be when STC releases final estimates on December 4, 2026. While principal field crops production is forecast 5% lower than the record 2025 harvest, it would still rank as the second-largest crop on record and surpass the five-year average by 10%. Total supplies are expected to remain nearly unchanged y/y, as large carry-in stocks (beginning-year inventories) are projected to mostly offset the decline in production. Exports of principal field crops are forecast to decrease by 2% y/y but remain robust at 11% above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) of principal field crops are projected to decline modestly y/y, as lower production results in a return to more normal supply levels, and a small increase in domestic use more than offset the decrease in exports. Although harvest in Western Canada is behind historical averages, progress has improved due to drier weather in late September to early October. This year’s crop quality will be known with subsequent releases of the Canadian Grain Commission’s Harvest Sample Program. In Eastern Canada, corn and soybean harvests have progressed well in line with historical harvest
campaigns; with limited delays due to localized weather events.


The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on November 19, 2026.

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)

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