For the 2025-26 crop year, the report provides final estimates by Statistics Canada (STC) for all crops with the exception of corn and soybeans.According to information from STC’s September 9, 2026 report on Stocks of Principal Field Crops as of July 31, 2026, stocks of principal fieldcrops, excluding corn and soybeans, were 47.5% higher than 2025 levels and 37.1% above the previous five-year average. Most crops recordedhigher stocks at the end of July, with wheat, excluding durum, posting the largest increase, up 48.8% year over year (y/y), as lower exportscoincided with record production. Barley was the only exception, with stocks declining by 24.7%, largely due to robust exports combined withstrong domestic demand for animal feed and industrial use. Canola stocks increased 18.9% from 2025, despite brisk exports since December andstrong domestic processing from January to July 2026, reflecting large beginning inventories following China’s imposition of tariffs and reducedimports in the first quarter of the crop year. As a result, carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) for all principal field crops are expected toincrease significantly, by 42% y/y, and remain 30% above the five-year average. The average price for most field crops are lower y/y, except forcorn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed.
For the 2026-27 crop year, the outlook incorporates preliminary crop production estimates from STC’s recent Model-Based Principal Field CropEstimates release, based on information available as of August 31, 2026. Production of principal field crops is estimated to decline 5.0% from therecord 2025 harvest but remain 9.5% above the previous five-year average. If realized, the 2026 crop would be the second-largest harvest onrecord. Prairie production is projected to decline 8.3% y/y but remain 8.7% above the previous five-year average. Production in Eastern Canada isprojected to increase 8.4% y/y, supported by stronger corn and soybean output. Most other field crops are expected to post lower productionresult in 2026 as yields return to near average levels. Wheat production is projected to decrease 10.9% y/y, reflecting lower yields and reducedseeded area for both durum and wheat (excluding durum). Oilseed production is expected to increase 1.0% y/y, as a larger soybean crop offsetsslightly lower canola production. Coarse grain production is forecast to increase 1.9% y/y, driven by higher corn yields and seeded area, whichmore than offset declines in other coarse grains. Production of pulses and special crops is projected to fall sharply by 20.9%, as lower yieldscombine with reduced acreage, particularly for dry peas and lentils. Harvest progress in Western Canada is significantly behind both last year’space and the five-year average, as widespread rainfall has delayed fieldwork. The impact of harvest delays and weather conditions on crop qualitywill become clearer through subsequent releases of the Canadian Grain Commission’s Harvest Sample Program. Carry-out stocks are projected todecrease, reflecting lower production and a return to more normal supply levels.
|
2026–2027 |
Production |
Exports |
|
Durum |
6,417 |
5,050 |
|
Wheat |
29,705 |
23,450 |
|
All Wheat |
36,122 |
28,500 |
|
Barley |
9,713 |
3,500 |
|
Corn |
16,549 |
2,600 |
|
Oats |
3,031 |
2,361 |
|
Rye |
394 |
203 |
|
Mixed Grains |
172 |
0 |
|
Total Coarse Grains |
29,860 |
8,664 |
|
Canola |
22,051 |
7,700 |
|
Flaxseed |
386 |
275 |
|
Soybeans |
7,456 |
5,400 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
29,892 |
13,375 |
|
Total Grains & Oilseeds |
95,873 |
50,539 |
|
Dry Peas |
3,260 |
2,700 |
|
Lentils |
2,467 |
2,400 |
|
Dry Beans |
354 |
375 |
|
Chickpeas |
400 |
250 |
|
Mustard Seed |
158 |
100 |
|
Canary Seed |
142 |
135 |
|
Sunflower Seed |
72 |
35 |
|
Total Pulses & Spec. Crops |
6,853 |
5,995 |
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)
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