Canada: Outlook For Principal Field Crops - September 09, 2026

The 2025-26 crop year concluded on July 31, 2026, for the majority of field crops, with the exception of corn and soybeans. Export demand remained strong, supported by a record harvest and ample supplies, with shipments of all principal field crops nearly unchanged from the previous year and 15% above the five-year average. Despite strong export activity and increased domestic consumption, abundant supplies led to a significant rise in carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) for all principal field crops, which rose 31% year over year (y/y), and were 19% above the five-year average. The larger stock levels primarily reflect the record 2025 harvest. The price forecasts for most field crops are lower y/y, except for corn, canola, soybeans, and mustard seed.


For 2026-27, the Outlook has incorporated and is informed by the second Canadian Crop Yield Forecast (CCYF) report of the 2026 growingseason. The CCYF forecast is based on agroclimatic conditions observed from May 1 to July 31, 2026, and satellite-derived Normalized.Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data collected from May 1 to July 26, 2026. AAFC forecasts production of principal field crops to declined by 5% y/y in 2026-27, reflecting a return to more typical yield levels following the record harvest of the previous year. Despite the anticipated decline, total production is expected to remain 9% above the five-year average. Production prospects remain subject to weather and moisture conditions through the remainder of the growing season as August is a critical yield-setting period for most crops. Harvest in Western Canada has begun, while winter wheat harvest is well underway in Eastern Canada. Exports of principal field crops are forecast to remain robust, declining by 4% from the previous year but remaining 12% above the five-year average, supported by strong international demand and ample domestic supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected to decrease reflecting lower production and a return to more normal supply levels.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled for release on September 25, 2026.

Please refer to the full report for all details.
(thousand metric tons)

Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC)

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